Video Downloads Coming to new iPhone

May 26, 2009

Apple Bringing Video Purchasing/Downloads to the iPhone

By DARRELL ETHERINGTON, GigaOm

I dream of the day when my iPhone’s sync cable lies dusty and neglected in the back of a cabinet somewhere, and that day is getting closer and closer, thanks to iPhone OS 3.0. Yet another new feature discovered last week suggests that iPhone owners will have one less reason to connect and sync their devices come June. The feature in question is the ability to buy and download video content via iTunes.

The discovery came via “leaked” official Apple ad spots in the app Twitterfon (although I have trouble believing Apple would inadvertently be this sloppy) for iTunes TV, iTunes Movies, and iTunes Movie Rentals.

According to Twitter users, the source of the news, and commenters on this post, tapping on the ads redirected users with iPhone OS 3.0 installed on their phone to a previously unknown subsection of the built-in iTunes app, where movies and TV shows are listed. Movie links aren’t active yet, but it otherwise seems to be nearly ready for public consumption.

A variety of screenshots are available, thanks to the post by blogger KwameJones, and one commenter posted a link to the store that would work when accessed using an iPhone running OS 3.0, but the link has since ceased to be active. Lists of shows and movies with polished artwork include very recent titles like “Kings” and “The Wrestler”, which would indicate that Apple is indeed prepping this for a June launch, rather than just beta testing an early build of a video store to be added much later.

At this point, nothing is known about pricing, conditions of rental/purchase, or interaction/syncing with your iTunes library on your computer, but I’d love some sort of Kindle-like function that allows you to pick up watching video where you left off regardless of what platform you use to view it. Since this wasn’t announced at the iPhone 3.0 announcement event, I’m also guessing it’s a recent addition, possibly in answer to Microsoft’s upcoming “xYz” device, which is said to have similar features.

After the recent news that the Slingplayer app for iPhone would only be able to stream over Wi-Fi, I think it’s probably safe to assume that video downloads won’t be allowed over a 3G connection. On the other hand, it is possible that the only reason Apple imposed the Slingplayer restriction to begin with was to make this upcoming service a more appealing choice to iPhone users. If it did offer downloading regardless of connection type, and maybe even streaming content once you’ve begun your download, I think the customer response would be overwhelmingly positive.

Android on AT&T

AT&T's been extraordinarily coy about its Android plans, right up through our interview with Mobility CEO Ralph de la Vega back in February -- but rest assured, the carrier does plan to get in the game, and it might just beat a number of T-Mobile's planned launches to market. Meet the HTC Lancaster, which kinda looks like a Magic when closed -- but open, it takes on more of a traditional Touch Pro-ish form factor for a QWERTY slider than the G1 / Dream. It's got triband EDGE and 850 / 1900MHz HSPA, AGPS, a 3 megapixel fixed-focus camera, Bluetooth 2.0, microSD expansion, and a "unique HTC social messaging user interface" that we'd assume takes cues from that Hero stuff we've been seeing recently. It's lined up for a full six months of AT&T exclusivity and -- according to our materials, anyway -- has a target availability date of August 3, meaning we could see this pretty shortly. Unfortunately, there's a note here that "Initial Lab Entry dates were based on Google Mobile Services (GMS) UI, AT&T standard UI has been requested, which puts schedule in question." In other words, AT&T wants its fingerprints all over the interface, which risks pushing out the launch -- and that's a double whammy of suck. Follow the break for a larger shot of the phone!

Small Towns Investing In Opening Their Own Retailers

Imagine if companies approached people that lived in a neighborhood to invest in opening a retail location and in return offered dividends on the profits to the people that invested. If retailers ran programs like this, how would that affect neighborhoods and the businesses that located themselves there? 

Phones = Summer Blockbusters

May 18, 2009

Cellphone Makers Hope for a Blockbuster Summer

By MATT RICHTEL

The hype machine started months ago. Opening weekends are upon us. High up in executive suites, the hope is that this summer’s new releases will cause lines to snake around the block.

The cellphone industry looks a lot like the movie industry nowadays. Some highly anticipated phones — including the Palm Pre, an updated iPhone and new phones using the Android operating system from Google — have focused the industry’s efforts on the crucial months between Memorial Day and Labor Day.

In the past, “nobody gave a darn about mobile phones — they weren’t headline grabbers,” said Charles Wolf, a cellphone industry analyst with Needham & Company. “This summer will be really interesting. It could be potentially the most exciting time in this market.”

The season’s releases began last week, when T-Mobile announced the introduction of the Sidekick LX and AT& T unveiled the Samsung Jack, ballyhooing it as “another hit crossover smartphone in the tradition of the Blackjack and Blackjack II.”

But the season’s most compelling phone drama will start the first week in June, when Sprint will begin selling the Palm Pre, people briefed on the company’s plans said.

Palm, a once-iconic device maker that has fallen on hard times, has been hyping the Pre for months as an iPhone killer, but the company has given few peeks to analysts and reviewers. Analysts say the stakes are high for Sprint Nextel, which has exclusive rights to the phone in the United States, but even higher for Palm, which is based in Silicon Valley.

“This is make or break for Palm,” said Mr. Wolf, noting that Palm, also the maker of Treo and Centro phones, lost about $98 million in the last quarter, consistent with losses in other recent quarters. “It’s not make or break for Sprint, but clearly Sprint is in trouble, too, and needs a hit.”

Lynn Fox, a spokeswoman for Palm, played down the importance of the Pre itself, saying it was the first “in a long line” of devices that will use Palm’s new mobile operating system. “The Pre isn’t a bet-the-company device,” Ms. Fox said.

Because the smartphone market still has room to grow (according to Google, it is estimated that out of the four billion mobile devices in the world, only 100 million are smartphones), manufacturers hope there is room for more than one winner.

How is success measured for cellphones? A flop will sell fewer than 100,000 units, a hit at least one million, and a runaway success five times that or more, analysts say. In July 2007, the iPhone’s first month on the market, 80,000 people bought one. Apple went on to sell iPhones, including the 3G version, to more than five million Americans, according to comScore.

Big phone releases happen year-round, but there is a concentration in the summer. That way, phone carriers and manufacturers can take advantage of two crucial selling seasons: back to school and the holidays, said Mark Donovan, an analyst with comScore. As soon as June 8, just a few days after the expected release of the Pre, Apple may introduce a third version of its iPhone at the company’s annual conference for software developers. The phone could become available a month later, though analysts and Apple rumormongers say it might also come later in the summer.

Analysts generally agree that the phone will have an upgraded camera, a faster processor and better location services. Apple, of course, has less risk than other phone makers; its iPhone is already a blockbuster. That said, if the company fails to keep innovating, it risks losing its buzz. Jennifer Bowcock, an Apple spokeswoman, declined to comment on the company’s plans for a new phone.

Also in June, Samsung has said, it plans to release the i7500, its first phone based on the Android operating system, but it has not said when that phone will come to the United States. HTC recently released the Android-equipped Magic in Europe. And Motorola says it plans to start selling several Android phones this summer, phones the company is counting on, given its desperate need for a hit. Trickling into the market — though release dates are uncertain — are a host of phones using a new mobile operating system from Microsoft. Microsoft’s current mobile platform has not met expectations. The hope is that a new operating system, Windows Mobile 7, will reboot the franchise.

Mr. Wolf of Needham said that the concept of sexy phones equaling or superseding network quality as a selling point for consumers started in earnest in 2006. By then, carriers realized, most adults already had cellphone service and needed to be inspired to buy new phones or seduced into switching carriers.

An early example came in July 2006, when Verizon Communications introduced the LG Chocolate, which was preceded by a teaser advertising campaign that promoted a release date. In November 2007, Verizon began another big campaign, called “Next phones now,” that included the LG Voyager, LG Venus, Blackberry Pearl and Samsung Juke (not to be confused with the Jake, or the Jack).

Brenda Raney, a spokeswoman for Verizon, argued that blockbuster phones cannot exist without a great network. “Consumers know if you don’t have a good wireless experience, what good is the phone?”

Mr. Donovan of comScore disagreed. “No one’s out there saying the Palm Pre is going to be a hit because the call quality is magnificent,” he said. Consumers are increasingly focused on the latest devices, he said, and manufacturers have only a short time to draw consumers’ attention.

“Phones don’t stand the test of time,” Mr. Donovan said. “I look at my personal handset museum, and the coolest thing I had in my pocket eight years ago is laughable.” When it comes to phones, he added, “there are no ‘Citizen Kanes’ out there.”

Walmart's Quarterly Earnings: Flat, Rev Drops (a feat in this economy)

May 15, 2009

Wal-Mart’s Revenue Drops in Quarter

By STEPHANIE ROSENBLOOM

Wal-Mart, the giant discount chain and unofficial barometer of consumer spending, posted flat year-over-year earnings in its most recent quarter — an accomplishment in this economy.

Most retailers — even discount stores, which have been faring relatively well — are not expected to report year-over-year sales growth in the first months of their fiscal year.

Several chains including Bon-Ton, Saks, Sears and Dillards are not even expected to make a profit, according to Retail Metrics, a research firm.

For the three months ended April 30, Wal-Mart, the country’s largest retailer, had a profit of $3.02 billion, or 77 cents a share, compared with $3.02 billion, or 76 cents a share, for the period a year ago. In earlier reports, Wal-Mart had warned that results would be hurt by currency exchange rates.

Revenue fell 0.6 percent to $93.47 billion, from $94.04 billion a year earlier.

Last week, the company said for the first quarter, sales at stores open at least a year, a measure of retail health known as same-store sales, increased 3.7 percent, not including fuel. Same-store sales in April rose 5.9 percent.

Indeed, Wal-Mart has had good results of late. Its low prices on everything from generic prescription drugs to frozen pizzas have helped it take market share from ailing and bankrupt retailers, as well as supermarkets and grocery stores. More people are shopping its stores, and they are spending more.

Eduardo Castro-Wright, vice chairman of Wal-Mart’s United States operations, said in a recorded conference call for investors that about 17 percent of Wal-Mart’s customer traffic came from new customers. He added that their average basket size is 40 percent higher than Wal-Mart’s average — proof that shoppers were trading down.

Bob Drbul, a retailing analyst with Barclays Capital, estimated that 27 percent of Wal-Mart’s sales growth in February came from new households.

“When economic conditions improve, we believe customers who shop Wal-Mart today will stay with us, because of the business improvements we’re making and continue to make,” Michael T. Duke, Wal-Mart’s president and chief executive, said in a statement.

Declining gas prices, compared with last year, also helped drive customers to Wal-Mart. And the retailer’s efforts to be the go-to destination for holiday gifts and decorations paid off: comparable sales of Easter-related merchandise grew 7.6 percent from a year ago.

Wal-Mart said it expected to earn 83 to 88 cents a share in its current quarter, and that same-store sales at its United States and Sam’s Club stores will each be flat to up 3 percent.

Also on Thursday, Kohl’s, the discount apparel chain, reported that for the three months ended May 2, its profit fell to $137 million, or 45 cents a share, compared with $153 million, or 49 cents a share, a year ago. That was better than what retailing analysts had been expecting.

Despite the decline, Kohl’s has been a favorite of many analysts who think it is well-positioned to thrive when the economy turns around. Analysts have praised Kohl’s management team, its investments in technology, even its marketing.

And the company is proving to be adept at hooking consumers on its exclusive name-brands, which account for 44 percent of Kohl’s sales. In February Kohl’s rolled out a clothing line by Dana Buchman that executives said has been selling better than they expected. In July, in time for back-to-school shopping, the MUD children’s apparel brand will become exclusive to Kohl’s. And in October, a line of clothing by Lauren Conrad — the star of “The Hills,” MTV’s popular reality series — will reach stores.

While other retailers are cutting back, Kohl’s has bought stores once occupied by the bankrupt Mervyn’s chain, and is moving into new areas of the country.

“We are focused on gaining market share in this difficult environment,” Kevin Mansell, president and chief executive of Kohl’s said in a statement. In a conference call Thursday with analysts and investors, Kohl’s executives said the company should able to capitalize on even more real estate opportunities and continue to steal market share as the industry consolidates. For the three months ended Aug. 1, the company expects to earn 56 to 64 cents a share. Kohl’s also updated its guidance for its fiscal year 2009. It is now expects to earn $2.19 to $2.42 a share, up from its previous guidance of $2 to $2.30 a share.

“The consumer mindset has changed,” Mr. Drbul said, noting that both Wal-Mart and Kohl’s have earned the trust of shoppers in need of low prices. “These are two retailers that are both very mindful of that consumer.”

The Failure of 3G - Time Magazine

The Failure of 3G Hurts Apple and Its Competition
By 24/7 Wall St.

The inadequacy of 3G networks to carry data and video for large numbers of handsets simultaneously is hurting the performance of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone. The problem only starts there. The weakness of 3G networks has also likely undermined the consumer's opinion of new products from RIM (RIMM), the Samsung Instinct, and a host of new products from market leader Nokia (NOK).

None of the consumer electronics companies banking on 3G to drive handset sales to pre-recession levels are going to be able to count on their carrier partners for services that will show off the best features of phones that can download and manipulate files, access the internet, and play video. (See the top iPhone applications for new moms.)

The Wall Street Journal reports that the iPhone is so feature rich that "the resulting growth in downloading and Web browsing will strain AT&T's network." AT&T is not alone. Sprint (S) and Verizon Wireless (VZ)(VOD) are up against the same problems.

The promise of 4G wireless networks, which should operate at speeds five to ten times faster than 3G, may be years away. Sprint is testing WiMax ultra-fast broadband in several cities, but there is no guarantee that the technology will work in nationwide rollout. AT&T and Verizon are preparing technologies which are supposed to offer similar results. (See the top ten gadgets of 2008.)

The handset and cell industries face a particularly vexing problem. The current 3G networks are not powerful enough to allow consumers with advanced handsets to take advantage of all of their features, especially networks strained by huge transfers of data to and from handsets. It is a problem that cannot be solved soon enough to keep customers from being disappointed because the phones they have purchased will not work well on the services they have subscribed to.

— Douglas A. McIntyre

Verizon's Latest Move Shows Focus on Wireless, Broadband

Frontier to Buy Verizon Lines for $5.3 Billion

5/13/09

Moving to sharpen its focus on the wireless and broadband businesses, Verizon Communications said Wednesday it would spin off wireline operations spanning 14 states and merge them with Frontier Communications for $5.3 billion in stock.

The proposed deal covers 4.8 million access lines in Arizona, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin, as well as some in California, Verizon said.

“This transaction is an attractive way to add value through a special distribution to our shareholders,” Ivan Seidenberg, Verizon’s chairman and chief executive officer, said Wednesday in a statement announcing the spinoff.

“Longer term, this transaction is part of our multiyear effort to transform our growth profile and asset base to focus on wireless, FiOS fiber-optic services and other broadband development, and global IP,” he said.

As part of the spinoff, Verizon’s shareholders will receive stock in Frontier giving them a stake of about 68 percent in the combined company. Exact terms of the exchange will depend on where Frontier’s shares are trading shortly before the deal closes, subject to limits in the form of a “collar.”

Maggie Wilderotter, Frontier’s chairman and chief executive, called Wednesday’s deal a “transformational transaction.”

“We are confident that we can dramatically accelerate the penetration of broadband in these new markets during the first 18 months,” she said in a company statement.

The boards of directors of both companies have approved the transaction, which is expected to close in 12 months, Frontier said.

Verizon said the spinoff would also deliver value of about $3.3 billion through cash and debt that Verizon would receive before the spinoff, as well as debt issued by Verizon subsidiaries that Frontier would assume. Including debt, the deal has a value of about $8.6 billion.

Verizon’s advisers in the transactions were Barclays Capital and JPMorgan Securities. Citigroup and Evercore Partners acted as financial advisers to Frontier, and Cravath, Swaine & Moore was Frontier’s legal adviser.

Go to Verizon Press Release via PRNewswire » Go to Frontier Press Release »

Recession Presents Opportunity for Ads to Pop Up in New Places

May 12, 2009

Advertising

As Storefronts Become Vacant, Ads Arrive

By STEPHANIE CLIFFORD

Almost every category of advertising is declining precipitously in this economy, but there is one that is thriving.

Taking advantage of all the abandoned retail spaces in urban areas, marketers are leasing them at cut-rate prices and filling them with their ads.

At first, advertisers saw storefront advertising as a poor man’s billboard — that is, a bad thing. Now, they see it as a poor man’s billboard — that is, brilliantly frugal.

Ads for Intel that went up on Monday capitalized on the bankruptcies of stores like the Disney Store, Domain Home and Comp- USA, filling their former shops with digital billboards.

Elsewhere, barren-looking store windows have been plastered over by ads for Nestea, Snickers, Delta Air Lines and Conservation International.

“All you have to do is walk out the door for lunch and notice the number of vacant storefronts — and they tend to be in prime areas, in major thoroughfares, and they’re unused space — so why not get in there and put a message in there?” said Peter Sherman, the managing director of BBDO West, San Francisco, part of the Omnicom Group.

BBDO West is running ads for Conservation International in storefronts in New York, San Francisco and Berkeley. Advertisers can rent the storefronts for a fraction of what landlords charge retailers.

Mr. Sherman is paying an average of $500 for three-month stints in prime locations. (An outdoor billboard in comparable spots would cost $50,000, he said.)

In some cases, he said, the landlords even donated space, both because they liked Conservation International’s environmental message, and because it is more appealing to have something in their windows other than dust and grime.

“It looks better for something to be going on in the storefront,” Mr. Sherman said. “If that something is a positive message regarding the environment, that’s a win for both sides.”

The retail vacancy rate rose to 11.2 percent in the first quarter, the highest it has been since the early 1990s, according to CBRE Econometric Advisors, a unit of the CB Richard Ellis Group. And some real estate owners say an ad helps, literally, cover up the problem.

“The way I look at it, when somebody moves out of a space it looks terrible,” said William Walther, the president of Granite Companies Asset Management, which owns several buildings in Manhattan. “Retail use is animated, because you see all the things that are in the space and people are in the space, and coming and going. When people move out, it’s just a big, vacant room and not very attractive,” he said.

Though advertisers pay only 10 to 15 percent of what a retailer would, Mr. Walther says he will take that. “We still have taxes, we have insurance, we have electricity that we have to pay on the property,” he said. “The market started to change, so now we look at it as, ‘When’s the next campaign, fellas?’ ”

Storefront advertisers say that since the downturn, real estate owners have become eager to lease their space, making ads in prominent spots more common.

Ray Lee, the managing director of real estate at Inwindow Outdoor, a company that creates storefront advertisements, used to have to court real estate owners, but now they are calling him, he said.

“In the last year and a half, it’s been much easier to acquire locations,” Mr. Lee said. “They’re realizing the money’s important, of course, and they’re realizing they don’t want to be sitting on vacant spaces anymore — they want to be more ambitious in terms of covering their windows.”

Inwindow Outdoor executives said the company had had record revenue in the last two quarters. And Inwindow’s ads are running in highly trafficked places. A former high-end furniture store in Greenwich Village in Manhattan is now an ad for Snickers. A Delta ad covers the windows of a former restaurant in Midtown Manhattan.

A group of Intel ads that began running Monday has gotten particularly good placement because of other companies’ misfortune: ads are running at several sites where the former tenant declared bankruptcy.

These include the Disney Store in San Francisco (its operator, Hoop Holdings, filed for bankruptcy last year), a CompUSA in Chicago (the company filed for bankruptcy in 2007 and is operating under a new owner), and a former Domain Home store in the Flatiron district of Manhattan (Domain filed for bankruptcy in 2008).

“We were able to time the market well to find a couple even better locations than what we originally anticipated,” said Jamie Eaton, group strategy director at OMD, the media-buying unit of the Omnicom Group, which advised Intel on its strategy. “As the companies make a transition, the great thing for the landscape is you’re able to cover up something that may have been a visual sore point.”

Inwindow has also changed the storefront ads so they are more than just posters hanging inside a store. It now designs custom vinyl coverings that adhere to a store’s brick and glass, and are cut to fit over doors, ledges and other architectural elements.

The Snickers ad is composed of several panels that fit over the building’s panes of glass, while an ad for Nestea is plastered over both the windows and the doors of a former shop in Midtown Manhattan, making it look more like a street-level billboard than abandoned retail space.

The potential is even bigger when marketers incorporate technology, said Steve Birnhak, the chief executive of Inwindow Outdoor. “If you look at vacant real estate as a shell, it’s the perfect environment to safehouse any technology you want that lives within the confines of that building,” he said.

The Intel ads house screens displaying slightly time-delayed text messages from passers-by about their hopes for the future. And for “Coraline,” a fantasy movie, Inwindow created holograms in dark retail spaces. “Children would appear out of thin air in an environment that looked to be 20 feet deep, and float up to the window,” he said.

For Mr. Sherman, the storefronts he used for Conservation International did double duty. They were cheap, centrally located and perfectly matched his message, which compared destruction of the environment to the destruction of the economy. The windows carried messages like “Our shopping districts are starting to look as barren as our rain forests” and “Ignore climate change and a lot more than our shops will be going under.”

Facebook Fatigue?

Some Millennials experience Facebook remorse, but it is here to stay.

By Galia Myron

May 8, 2009

As the collective human attention span seems to be devolving to mere seconds, trend watchers at Iconoculture have already dubbed recent sentiment among some Facebook followers as “Facebook remorse”—that sickening uh-oh feeling in the pit of the stomach when one has been featured in one too many humiliating photos, posts, or comments on the social networking site.

According to the report, which cites numbers from eMarketer, 60 percent of 12- to 24-year-olds say their friends’ Facebook profiles can damage their reputations, while nearly half (48 percent) state that they have been embarrassed by their own postings (from a multinational poll by OTX Research).

Online socializing won’t replace face-to-face contact anytime soon, OTX also found. The top three favorite activities among this cohort include hanging out with friends, listening to music, and seeing boyfriends and girlfriends.

Has Facebook’s wild popularity finally peaked? Are users experiencing Facebook fatigue?

“I do not think ‘fatigue’ is the right word, but ‘overwhelmed’ might be a better moniker,” says online social networking expert Chris Adams, president and CEO of View2gether, a social viewing platform that allows users to gather in an online community to watch, share and customize video content, while chatting with each other in real time.

“I think this has less to do with the proliferation of social networks in general, the terms of service, [and so on], but with Facebook's change in the homepage which, arguably, can be likened mostly to Twitter,” he explains.

The revamping of the homepage prompted many complaints; shortly after its launch, numerous status updates declared, “I hate the new Facebook.”

However, Adams says the new format has its advantages. “This allows for greater speed and real-time dissemination and ingestion of information, but has moved the brand, in my opinion, away from the magic of wanting to see what your friends are ‘doing’ which was more persistent than the rapid-fire ‘what are you thinking?’ present paradigm,” Adams contends.

Communication specialists think sometimes too much communication is just too much. “I like the term ‘Facebook fatigue,’" says communication expert Leslie Ungar, president of Akron, OH-based Electric Impulse Communications, Inc."You’re just tired. You’re not saying you’re never going to use it again, I think it fits.”

Ungar helps companies and individuals optimize their professional performance by honing their communication skills.

While many frustrated users of the networking site expressed dismay at the new design, Adams, a former member of the Facebook leadership team, says reactions varied among generational cohorts.

“I have experienced more push-back amongst Gen X than anything as I believe that Gen Y and Millennials are more adept at embracing and evangelizing new platforms like Twitter,” he explains. “They uptake them faster and they do not get flustered with the inevitable loss of ‘bloom on the rose’ that is tantamount to any online business; by this I mean that people of my generation [Gen X] seem to have embraced Facebook later, but really loved what it offered them and when Twitter came on the scene, they saw it as being confusing and therefore revolted to a certain extent.”

It is precisely the multigenerational impact that Facebook has had on people that may be why some Millennials are drifting, Ungar says. Rather than cite the new homepage design, she says the explosion of Baby Boomers and other older cohorts joining Facebook may have alienated younger users.

"Generation Y and younger Gen X think Facebook has gotten too old for them," she contends. "People on Facebook are their parents. Gen Y prefers Twitter because it is younger."

This is nothing new, she adds. "You always have generations encroaching on other people’s trends. It used to be that daughters wanted to wear their mothers clothes, but today mothers want to wear young people’s clothes," she adds. "Nothing stays one way. Boomers and older Gen X contaminated it for the younger generations."

Younger generations tend to be more flexible since they expect change; as long as they get the job done, Gen Y doesn’t care as much about the medium; they are less attached than their older cohorts are to specific networks. “Younger generations, in my opinion, seem to not care as much about one thing, one platform, one application or another as they seem to sense that everything is changing very fast,” Adams explains. “To them, as one platform or application serves its purpose, it's onto the next one. This can been seen in striking relief with the fact that Facebook arguably took three and a half to four years to really take hold whereas Twitter's entire zeitgeist can be tracked over the last six months.”

With Millennials’ ability to switch platform so quickly, will Facebook be tossed aside in favor of the newest and freshest? No, Adams says. Rather than replace Facebook, other sites are more likely to complement or work synergistically with the well-established network, he notes.

“Twitter has augmented Facebook in that one can tweet a short message which will not only go out into the Twittersphere but also operate as one’s Facebook status update,” he explains. “I think that efficiency paradigms of this sort are being embraced en masse by younger generations and I do not think it should be seen as an abandonment of Facebook, but rather an enhancement, which is perfectly natural to them.”

The social utility, Adams adds, can serve as a “foundation upon which people can build the framework of their life in the form of information, content and community as a toolset.”

The future of Facebook? It looks solid, but Adams says it will have to keep up with the rapidly changing times. “Obviously, like any business, Facebook will have to evolve and grow and be seen historically as the product of a certain time in the evolution of the web and perhaps a signature Web 2.0 company,” he explains. “I believe they will be a resonant brand like eBay and Amazon, but it is safe to say that before too long, new platforms, sites and experiences will rise on the web that will capture the imagination, attention and membership of a next generation of users.”

“For the time being, there is only one Facebook, but Twitter and Flutter and other sites are both enhancing the social networking experience yet not replacing the core foundation,” he adds.

Ungar says that while popular, Twitter and other networking sites will eventually plateau, but will still have their place in people's lives. "Anything you do with the frequency that Twitter and Facebook fans do will wear out, but they will continue to exist," she says. "Eventually the newness wears out. It is like when you are 16 and you get your driver's license and you want to go on every errand. Eventually you don’t want to pick up your sister everyday."

Perhaps people will tire of feeling "like hamsters on a wheel," Ungar adds. "They will eventually have to find some balance between life on an electronic piece of equipment and a real life. That balance will be different for everyone," she says. "Life just on Twitter or Facebook is tiring, but using them to supplement life is not going to get tiring."

It seems as if nothing replaces face-to-face contact, according to anecdotal and statistical surveys. Adams agrees. “At the end of the day, people interacting with other people in real life, in real time about real things in real places sharing reality and creating real experiences and memories will never wane,” he maintains.

Humans are by nature quite social, and require personal contact to thrive and nothing virtual can replace real get-togethers.

“Social networks like Facebook give people an amazingly robust, quick, efficient and easy way to make personal connections easier,” Adams says. “Friendships, relationships, community and acquaintances seem more real or actually become more real as relationships need and demand work, nurturing and attention.”

Facebook is a utility akin to the phone CB radio, email and other forms of communication meant to enhance connections, he adds; it does help people get to know one another better. Because of our innate need to connect, it looks as if it is here to stay.

“Of course all sites will go through periods of explosive growth and then plateau, but if Facebook continues to evolve and try new things and grow, then it can become the evergreen brand I believe it aspires to be,” Adams maintains.

Shared experiences are bonding, and View2gether, Adams adds, allows online socializing to go beyond the basics. “It is platform that empowers users to become channel programmers within sites they know and love,” he says.

The site allows for greater personalization, by which users create personalized channels and playlists to express themselves in a unique manner, sharing this content with others.

“This is not something new or far out, but rather a natural extension of how people always have and do behave. Going back millennia, people like to congregate around great content to share not only in the story/theme/characters/plot, but also to be caught up in and react to the way others are reacting to that very content,” Adams says.

Like watching a film in a theater with a large group of people that laughs, screams, cries, or cheers at the same time, Adams adds, social media helps create that audience. “We are all human and community and connectivity is part of the soul of who we are, which helps to both define us individually as well as collectively despite our many differences,” he says.

“Social media platforms and technologies are helping this massive aggregation of audience, distribution and content blend into a global socio-technological experiment which, ironically, is becoming more and more like human behavior and this is where I think everything is heading—toward a place in which the Facebooks of the world and all those technologies that work with it and come from it, address at a core level who we are as humans and how we live, work and play with each other,” Adams concludes.

"As a communication expert, my hope is that there will be balance," Ungar says."All these venues add value, but used exclusively, they detract."

News relevant to demographic trends--such as the generational trends of Baby Boomers, Generation X, Generation Y, and Matures--is posted several times a week on www.demodirt.com and demo dirt GOLD. To contact the editor, please email Galia Myron.